Latest official child poverty measures: 2021/22 (reported March 2023)
Every year, StatsNZ reports on nine measures of child poverty. CPAG’s immediate response to this year’s StatsNZ data is that new policy will be required to show any further improvement in rates of child poverty.
Income poverty (after housing costs, moving line)
Income poverty rates for children have remained largely the same for the latest 2-4 years reported when housing costs are taken into account (AHC moving line measures, as per the graph above). This recent lack of progress in reducing income poverty is not surprising as there is insufficient state support for children in low-income families.
In the year ending June 2022:
Approx. 328,000 children (~28.5%) were living in income poverty using an inclusive measure of poverty (AHC60). This rate has stayed fairly similar for the last four years, since 2019.
Māori: Around one third of Māori children (approx. 100,000) live in poverty on this measure.
Pacific: Around one third of Pacific children (approx. 57,000) live in poverty on this measure.
Disability: Disabled children (around one third) are more likely than non-disabled children (~27.8%) to live in poverty on this measure, while children who live in households with at least one disabled person (also around one third) are also more likely than others (~26.4%) to live in poverty on this measure.Approx 224,000 children (~19.4%) were living in income poverty, on the related 50% measure (AHC50). This rate has stayed similar (flatlined) for the last three years since 2020 and is only one seventh (1/7) below where it was in 2018.
Māori: The rates for Māori children are higher than the overall rates on this measure.
Pacific: The rates for Pacific children are higher than the overall rates on this measure.
Disability: The rates for disabled children are likely to be slightly higher than for non-disabled children; and the rates for children living in disabled households are also likely to be slightly higher than for children in non-disabled households.Approx 144,000 children (~12.5%) were living in severe income poverty, on the 40% or less measure. (AHC40). This rate declined significantly 2018-2021 by around a fifth, but now seems to have stalled (2022 figures are similar to 2021 figures).
Māori: for every ten Pākehā children in severe income poverty, the data suggests there are probably 13 Māori children in severe income poverty.
Pacific: Pacific children are also more likely than Pākehā to live in severe income poverty but the data over the last four years does not tell us by how much.
Disability: Due to small numbers sampled, the data is inconclusive as to how disability status affects rates of severe income poverty.
Material hardship
Approx 119,000 children (~10.3%) were living in material hardship in 2022. Overall rates of material hardship for children appear to have been dropping reasonably steadily over the last four years from 13.2% in 2019, a decrease of around one fifth.
Approx 45,000 children (~3.9%) were living in severe hardship (which is a subset of material hardship). These rates have also been trending downwards in recent years, from 5.7% to 3.9%.
Far too many children are burdened with material hardship and severe hardship, but the multi-year overall trend in these measures is an encouraging and positive sign that policies such as free school lunches may be working to reduce hardship..
June year. MELAA (Middle Eastern, Latin American and African.) and ‘other’ ethnicities are not shown due to extremely high margins of error
Material hardship rates for Māori and especially Pacific children are far above the national rates overall.
Māori: around one in five Māori children (~18.8% or ~57,000 children) live in material hardship, compared to just over one in ten children overall (~10.3%). For every two Pākehā children living in material hardship, five tamariki Māori are living in material hardship.
Around 23,500 tamariki Māori (~7.8%) live in severe material hardship, double the overall rate for children in New Zealand. Tamariki Māori are 2.9 times more likely than Pākehā children to live in severe hardship.
Pacific: Around one in four Pacific children (~25.6% or ~40,000) are living in material hardship compared to just over one in ten children overall (10.3%). Rates of material hardship and severe material hardship have consistently been higher for Pacific children than all other ethnicities since records began in 2019. Regarding change over time, while the data is inconclusive due to small numbers sampled, it suggests the inequity between Pacific and Pākehā rates may be increasing.
Around one in ten Pacific children (~10.3% or ~16,100) are living in severe material hardship. Pacific children are 3.8 times more likely than Pākeha children to live in severe hardship.
The orange lines in the graph above show disabled children are ~2.4 times more likely to live in hardship than non-disabled children, and ~2.6 times more likely to live in severe hardship than non-disabled children.
The blue lines show children living in households where at least one person has a disability (such their caregiver) are ~3.3 times more likely to live in hardship, and almost four times as likely to live in severe hardship than other children. Of all the children living in severe material hardship, most (60% or ~27,000) live in a household where at least one person has a disability.
Income poverty for disabled families is not much greater than for non-disabled families, but they can face far greater strains on their budgets due to disability-related costs. These statistics suggest lack of support for disability costs is a key barrier to reducing child poverty, and that such support is required not only for low-income families, but for those on higher incomes too.
Government Targets
By law, governments must set reduction targets on three key measures of child poverty. The graphs below show progress so far since the 2018 baseline, and the further progress that will be required in the six years to 2028 in order to meet the first 10-year target. Additional policy measures and resources will be required to meet future targets; for example, without further policy interventions, Treasury expects BHC poverty to increase from 2023/24.
Target 1: Income poverty (Before Housing Costs)
Approx 138,000 children (~12%) were living in income poverty in 2022 before housing costs are considered on the BHC50 (moving) measure (graph above). This is much lower than the comparator After-Housing-Costs measure (reported at top of the page), suggesting that housing costs are a barrier to reducing income poverty for children.
For this BHC50 measure, the government has not yet met its overdue 2021 reduction target of 10.5%. All priority groups recorded have higher-than-overall rates of poverty on this measure.
Māori: The income poverty rate for Māori on this BHC measure is ~14.5%, higher by 2.5 points than the overall rate. Not shown on graph: the data is inconclusive due to small numbers sampled, but suggests that the inequity between Pākehā and Māori on this measure decreased between 2019 and 2022 (i.e. the gap has become smaller). The BHC50 rates look to be lower in 2022 than in 2019 for both groups, but Māori rates appear to be lower by ~19% while Pākeha rates are lower by ~6%. Rates for tamariki Māori look to be 1.58 times higher than for Pākehā children in 2022, a decrease from 2019 when they appeared to be 1.83 times higher.
Pacific: The income poverty rate for Pacific on this BHC measure is ~19.5%, which is higher than the overall rate by a massive 7.5 points. Not shown on graph: the data is inconclusive, due to small numbers sampled, but suggests that the inequity between Pākehā and Pacific on this measure increased between 2019 and 2022 (i.e. the gap has grown larger). Pacific rates look to be slightly higher in 2022 than in 2019, while Pākehā rates have decreased slightly. Rates for Pacific children look to be 2.1 times larger than for Pākehā children in 2022, an increase from 2019 when they appeared to be 1.9 times larger.
Disability: The income poverty rate for disabled children on this BHC measure is ~17%, five points higher than the overall rate; the data is inconclusive due to small numbers sampled, but suggests that inequity increased for disabled children, compared to non-disabled children between 2020 (when disabled child poverty records began) and 2022.
For children in households where at least one person is disabled, the income poverty rate on this BHC measure is ~17.9%, higher than the overall rate by 5.9 points. Inequity rapidly increased for children in disabled households, compared to children in non-disabled households between 2020 and 2022. While disabled household BHC50 poverty rates appear to increase by 8% between 2020 and 2022, non-disabled BHC50 poverty rates decreased by 18% over the same two years. In 2022, the rates for children in disabled households were around 1.85 times higher than the rates for children in non-disabled households, an increase from 2020, when they were around 1.4 times larger. Thus, the inequity gap on the BHC50 measure for children in disabled vs non-disabled households increased by around one third (~32%) in the two years to 2022, as represented by the red arrows in the graph below. This is extremely concerning.
Target 2: Income poverty (fixed line)
Approx 177,000 children (~15.4%) were living in income poverty in 2022 on the AHC50 fixed measure. (“Fixed” does not compare current family incomes but is based on the median income for a particular ‘baseline’ year (in this case, the June 2018 year) while adjusting for inflation. This measure is useful during a recession, but otherwise is only a ‘backstop’ rather than a useful target.)
For this measure, the government met its 2021 reduction target (18.8%) early, by 2019 for children overall. However, the 2022 Pacific rate (~19.4%) appears still higher than the 2021 reduction target, and no reduction for children overall was indicated during the latest year.
Māori: The 2022 income poverty rate for Māori on this fixed measure is ~16.8%, higher by 1.4 points than the overall rate. Not shown on graph: the data is inconclusive due to small numbers sampled but suggests that the inequity between Pākehā and Māori on this measure has decreased between 2019 and 2022 (i.e. the gap has become smaller). Income poverty on this measure looks to be lower in 2022 than in 2019 for both groups, but Māori rates appear to be lower by ~25% while Pākeha rates are lower by ~13%. This means in 2022, rates of material hardship for tamariki Māori look to be 1.31 times larger than for Pākehā children, a decrease in inequity from 2019 when they appeared to be 1.52 times larger.
Pacific: The 2022 Pacific rate (~19.4%) is still higher than the overall 2021 reduction target, and higher than the overall 2022 rate by 4 points. The data is inconclusive due to small numbers sampled but suggests that the inequity between Pākehā and Pacific on this measure was about the same in 2022 as it was in 2019, but possibly growing very slowly. The Pacific rate is around 1.5 times larger than the Pākehā rate.
Disability: Poverty rates on this measure for disabled children and children in disabled households are broadly similar to the overall rate.
Target 3: Material Hardship
Approx 119,000 children (~10.3%) were living in material hardship in 2022, as reported above. The government’s 2021 target is likely to have been reached in 2022 – a year late, but an encouraging landmark. But most concerningly, all priority groups recorded have far higher-than-overall rates of poverty on this measure.
Māori: The 2022 Māori rate (~18.8%) is higher than the overall 2022 rate by 8.5 points. The data is inconclusive due to small numbers sampled but suggests that the inequity between Pākehā and Māori on this measure has grown between 2019 and 2022 (ie, the gap has grown bigger). Material hardship rates look to be lower in 2022 than in 2019 for both groups, but Māori rates appear to be lower by ~17% while Pākeha rates are lower by ~21%. This means in 2022, rates of material hardship for tamariki Māori look to be 2.47 times larger than for Pākehā children, an increase in inequity from 2019 when they appeared to be 2.35 times larger.
Pacific: The 2022 Pacific rate (~25.6%) is higher than the overall 2022 rate by 15.3 points. The data is inconclusive, due to small numbers sampled, but suggests that the inequity between Pākehā and Pacific children on this measure has grown between 2019 and 2022. Material hardship rates look to be lower in 2022 than in 2019 for both groups, but Pacific rates appear to be lower by only ~9% while Pākehā rates are lower by ~21%. This means in 2022, rates of material hardship for Pacific children look to be 3.37 times larger than for Pākehā children, an increase from 2019 when they appeared to be 2.94 times larger.
Disability: The 2022 hardship rate for disabled children (~21.5%) is higher than the overall 2022 rate by 11.2 points. The data is inconclusive, due to small numbers sampled, but suggests that inequity may have increased between non-disabled and disabled children between 2020 and 2022.
For children in households where at least one person has a disability, the 2022 hardship rate (~21.1%) is higher than the overall 2022 rate by 9.8 percentage points. The data is inconclusive, due to small numbers sampled, but it is likely that inequity in hardship rates increased between children living in disabled and non-disabled households between 2020 and 2022.
Background
New statistics are usually reported in February, based on the Household Economic Survey for the previous June year (the statistics reported reflect two years of income data, as respondents are asked about their income during the previous 12 months, no matter when in the data collection period they are asked)
Any indicated recent annual changes should be treated with caution, due to (unavoidable) sample errors, and regular updating of previously reported figures. The 2022 statistics presented here (reported in 2023) have larger sampling errors than usual as the survey sample size was lower than half the target size, due to data collection being impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, lockdowns and other disruptions.
The Household Economic Survey on which child poverty statistics are based on does not include “non-private dwellings” so families in emergency housing hotels and motels are not included, and the reported rates of child poverty are therefore likely to be under-estimates.
Now we have four years of data since the 2018 baseline, we can see multi-year trends which paint a clearer and more reliable picture than single year change, which sometimes can be statistical ‘noise’.
For more explanations, see our 2020 blog "Why Child Poverty statistics can be tricky" and/or visit StatsNZ "Measuring Child Poverty"